Mike D’s Blog

Well, it’s the last day of the year. There’s still 12 hours (and 1 extra second) until the year ends on the East coast of the US. I thought I’d take the time to write down my predictions for 2009. The great thing about predictions is you can write just about anything you want and you’re never wrong when the year starts and yet you’re nearly always wrong when the year ends. So here we go in no particular order.

• Microsoft will buy Citrix. OK. You can stop laughing now. I’m serious about this one. Microsoft continues to increase the capabilities of Terminal Server. Citrix continues to cede more and more of the hypervisor to Hyper-V. It really is a match made in heaven. It’s even been rumored and predicted (by Brian Madden) in the past. After failed bids for Yahoo Microsoft just might turn around and spend the saved up piggy bank on Citrix.

• Thousands of articles will appear saying how virtualization is becoming mainstream. I don’t know why but it always seems like this makes for a good article. News flash – virtualization is and has been mainstream for years. 100% of the Global 1000 already use virtualization. Hundreds of thousands of customers worldwide already use virtualization – and that’s just the ones that paid for it. Virtualization is mainstream. About the only news to write here now is that if you’re not virtualized then you are way behind the times. Still, get out the abacus and start counting. I’m sure there will be no end to the “virtualization is mainstream” articles this year.
• Customers will finally stand up to their ISVs. There’s been a lot of talk about what is and what isn’t supported in a virtual machine. There’s also been lots of talk about licensing in a virtual machine and how complex it can be. I think we’re about to reach a boiling point where customers band together and demand true support and per instance or per user licensing models from their ISVs. And yes, I might just be at the front of that fight.
• People still won’t understand cloud computing. In all my reading around the web I still haven’t seen one good, concise explanation of cloud computing. There are a lot of different terms and models out there but we still haven’t come to the true “I don’t care” model of cloud computing just yet. I think a lot of progress will be made this year on this front but we won’t get to the true model for another 2 years at least.
• The operating system will die. Yet another prediction that’s been made over and over again. I think this is the year we’ll see a strong move in this direction. With a big push for cloud the traditional OS model has to change. Microsoft is already breaking apart Windows to make it more modular. rPath and other virtual appliance providers are gaining steam. This will be a major year in the changing role of the OS.
• VMware stock will go through the roof! Hey, a guy can dream, can’t he? Personally I think we’re at a stellar price point to buy. Of course I also think 2009 is going to be a horrible year for everyone from a financial perspective. Even my father’s business is planning on operating at a loss this year. I really hope we can all band together to weather the storm. In the mean time here’s to a giant stock rally!!
  

There you have it. My predictions for 2009. For my faithful readers over seas – Happy New Year! I look forward to a very interesting 2009. If you have any predictions that you’d like to share then just comment below.