Dec 31
Well, it’s the last day of the year. There’s still 12 hours (and 1 extra second) until the year ends on the East coast of the US. I thought I’d take the time to write down my predictions for 2009. The great thing about predictions is you can write just about anything you want and you’re never wrong when the year starts and yet you’re nearly always wrong when the year ends. So here we go in no particular order.
- Microsoft will buy Citrix. OK. You can stop laughing now. I’m serious about this one. Microsoft continues to increase the capabilities of Terminal Server. Citrix continues to cede more and more of the hypervisor to Hyper-V. It really is a match made in heaven. It’s even been rumored and predicted (by Brian Madden) in the past. After failed bids for Yahoo Microsoft just might turn around and spend the saved up piggy bank on Citrix.
- Thousands of articles will appear saying how virtualization is becoming mainstream. I don’t know why but it always seems like this makes for a good article. News flash – virtualization is and has been mainstream for years. 100% of the Global 1000 already use virtualization. Hundreds of thousands of customers worldwide already use virtualization – and that’s just the ones that paid for it. Virtualization is mainstream. About the only news to write here now is that if you’re not virtualized then you are way behind the times. Still, get out the abacus and start counting. I’m sure there will be no end to the “virtualization is mainstream” articles this year.
- Customers will finally stand up to their ISVs. There’s been a lot of talk about what is and what isn’t supported in a virtual machine. There’s also been lots of talk about licensing in a virtual machine and how complex it can be. I think we’re about to reach a boiling point where customers band together and demand true support and per instance or per user licensing models from their ISVs. And yes, I might just be at the front of that fight.
- People still won’t understand cloud computing. In all my reading around the web I still haven’t seen one good, concise explanation of cloud computing. There are a lot of different terms and models out there but we still haven’t come to the true “I don’t care” model of cloud computing just yet. I think a lot of progress will be made this year on this front but we won’t get to the true model for another 2 years at least.
- The operating system will die. Yet another prediction that’s been made over and over again. I think this is the year we’ll see a strong move in this direction. With a big push for cloud the traditional OS model has to change. Microsoft is already breaking apart Windows to make it more modular. rPath and other virtual appliance providers are gaining steam. This will be a major year in the changing role of the OS.
- VMware stock will go through the roof! Hey, a guy can dream, can’t he? Personally I think we’re at a stellar price point to buy. Of course I also think 2009 is going to be a horrible year for everyone from a financial perspective. Even my father’s business is planning on operating at a loss this year. I really hope we can all band together to weather the storm. In the mean time here’s to a giant stock rally!!
There you have it. My predictions for 2009. For my faithful readers over seas – Happy New Year! I look forward to a very interesting 2009. If you have any predictions that you’d like to share then just comment below.
December 31st, 2008 at 1:11 pm
Thanks for all of the great posts in 2008, Mike. My prediction to add:
Client hypervisors (whether provided by VMware, Citrix, or upstarts like my colleagues and I at Virtual Computer) will emerge from their current “offline VDI” niche status to become the predominant delivery vehicle for virtual desktops.
December 31st, 2008 at 1:17 pm
I thought about putting something down for client hypervisors. I think the licensing implications of Windows in a VDI environment needs to be worked out before client hypervisors really take off big time. Of course all of these are just predictions.
Best of luck to Virtual Computer in the new year!
December 31st, 2008 at 2:42 pm
I liked the predictions a lot, especially the one about Microsoft acquiring Citrix, I though I was the only one having this weird speculations around this partnership tightening every single day (I haven’t been reading any thing like that online though). I’ve been in some seminars for Microsoft in my area, and every single time I see Citrix along, and how they (Microsoft & Citrix) tend to complement each others whenever a hot question pops up from the audience!! And then, and out of the blue, we hear about this crazy stuff like Citrix managing Hyper-V (Citrix Essentials for Hyper-V) and then Citrix XenDesktop running on top of Hyper-V!
This is really going to be a quite interesting year!
December 31st, 2008 at 3:06 pm
Re: Microsoft buying Citrix… I'm not sure that I've rumored this before (maybe, but I don't recall it now)… but this last year I've written specifically that I do NOT think Microsoft will buy Citrix. And I think that's true for 2009 too.
And good luck on the VMW price dude… Go long!
January 1st, 2009 at 4:37 pm
“Customers will finally stand up to their ISVs”
You rebel, you.
Good prediction, though.
January 2nd, 2009 at 11:42 am
Great predictions….I hope you're correct on most. I think you are referring to Doug Brown's comment's from just before VMworld on the Microsoft / Citrix deal??
I'll side with you and Doug on this one….maybe add a little more to it – 10 % “work force reduction” at MS and then the merger announcement? It'll probably be one of those corporate blah, blah, blah announcements saying they hope to achieve the reductions through attrition, retirement and a hold on new hires. Then the Citrix announcement with some way to praise the Citirx technology and save some face for the MS products?
However you look at things, 2009 will be an outstanding year for virtual technologies across the board!!
January 7th, 2009 at 7:20 am
> The operating system will die.
Mike, just a brief comment as a reminder that you have just announced that your product is an OS
Massimo.
January 7th, 2009 at 7:27 am
Ironic I guess. What I said though was “the traditional OS model will change” as in you don't need some monolithic operating system to abstract the hardware resources from your applications which is what Windows, Linux, etc do today. Instead you'll have JEOS (just enough OS) running inside a virtual appliance or even a custom built microkernel for a particular app. Outside of that you'll have something like VDC-OS to run the datacenter and abstract the datacenter from the application layer. In a nutshell the OS role is moving down a layer and broadening out.
Good catch though.
January 7th, 2009 at 9:54 am
Yeah I think I was indeed ironic……. I assume you have seen this:
http://it20.info/blogs/main/archive/2008/09/21/...
You are kind of trying to sell ice to an eschimese so to speak…
Massimo.
January 7th, 2009 at 7:46 pm
Yeah. That is pretty funny. Hadn't seen that until now. The whole OS versus non-OS debate went on (and still goes on) inside of VMware for a long time. It's like the whole microkernel versus not a microkernel debate with vmkernel and ESXi, etc. I guess that's what happens when you're in a new area of IT.
January 8th, 2009 at 2:46 am
Yeah. That is pretty funny. Hadn't seen that until now. The whole OS versus non-OS debate went on (and still goes on) inside of VMware for a long time. It's like the whole microkernel versus not a microkernel debate with vmkernel and ESXi, etc. I guess that's what happens when you're in a new area of IT.